Tariffs Raised Prices. Why the Inflation Story Is More Complicated Now
Tariff pass-through, consumer prices, the price level, and why inflation effects change over time.
Topic guide
Macroeconomics, Money & Markets
A collection of writing on how prices, money, policy, and market institutions interact across the modern economy.
Prices are outcomes, not labels
Inflation, tariffs, asset prices, and market-implied probabilities all emerge from adjustment processes rather than from a single mechanical rule. Pass-through depends on behavior, market structure, timing, and substitution.
The same principle applies to new forms of money. Stablecoin growth can change the composition of safe-asset demand and bank funding, while the size of the effect depends on where funds come from and how reserves are invested.
Why market design matters
Markets aggregate information only through institutions. Liquidity, incentives, reserve rules, settlement, regulation, and the availability of counterparties determine what a price means and how useful it is.
That makes market design a recurring theme across payments, prediction markets, trade policy, and monetary economics.
Stablecoins Are Becoming Shadow Checking Accounts—and That Changes Banking
How stablecoins affect bank funding, Treasury demand, payments, and the dollar.
Prediction Markets Are Not Crystal Balls. They Are Markets for Information.
Information aggregation, liquidity, probabilities, manipulation, and market design.
What If AI Raises Inflation Before It Raises Productivity?
How AI investment and productivity can push inflation and interest rates in different directions.